房价3年涨31%

房价涨不停，政府打房一刻不得閒，但分析员认为“一网打尽”的全面性措施成效不大，应放手让市场“看不见的手”展开一次调整机会，或透过更针对性的措施打房才可见到更显著的效果。

黄氏唯高达研究表示，在供不应求、新產业標高价格、成本走扬和宏观经济等因素影响下，过去3年大马產业价格已飆升31%，其中住宅產业在2012年创下678亿令吉和27万2千699单位的销售价值和数量新高。

產业盈利税影响短暂
成本转嫁房价涨更多

“有鑑於此，我们瞭解政府需要积极打击產业市场投机炒作活动，但我们並不主张提高產业盈利税（RPGT）应对，因这在过去只带来短暂影响，並可能使得卖家將额外增值成本转嫁至买家身上，进而让高涨的產业价格雪上加霜。”

此外，隨著RPGT上调，卖家可能推迟出售计划，而发展商也可能展延新產业推介，导致市场供需情况进一步失衡。

该证券行补充，就算提高印花税影响较大，但卖家一样可將成本转嫁至买家身上，而任何调幅不只会影响新工程，在建工程也同样受到牵连。

“因此，我们认为应给市场力量一次机会，主要是2014至2015年新供应有望加速，以及廉宜游资消失將影响需求走疲，將抑制產业价格上涨趋势，未来2至3年的年均增幅將减为3至5%。”

未来2至3年
销售减5至10%

受到国內生產总值（GDP）放缓和高通膨压缩可支配收入衝击，黄氏唯高达预见未来2至3年住宅產业销售將按年萎缩5至10%，其中住宅產业销售在今年首半年已出现走疲跡象，成交量按年下跌13%，而交易价值仅增长1%，连带拖累今年首季產业价格增速从去年的12%减速至6%。

不过，黄氏唯高达认为，市场力量固然可信，但並无“美好市场”存在，因此建议政府採取数项措施来抑制房市炒作，同时推广居者有其屋概念，其中包括：a）取消一手市场津贴，如可能纳入售价內的发展商承担利息计划（DIBS），同时要求银行更严格评估新產业价值，但放宽二手市场融资以帮助扩大市场供应基础，以及为国內產业市场重注活力。

b）加速可负担產业配套推介，为私人產业发展商提供透明津贴来共襄盛举。

同时学习新加坡建屋发展局（HDB）的完善政策、每人每次一户的执法行动，並落实特定地点售价上限措施。

c）市场细分：创造国际级公寓环节来吸引外国高財富人士和投资。

延迟新建
间接推涨房价

黄氏唯高达表示，隨著產业和大型基建工程纷纷动工，建筑週期高峰可能面对建材和外劳供应短缺的问题，进而使得发展商赚益受到影响，恐进一步导致新產业推介延迟，令產业售价持续飆升。

“但是，纵然產业价格走扬，我们认为在可负担能力依旧高企、家庭负债仍健康和廉宜游资將自行消散等因素支撑下，国內產业市场並未见泡沫化风险。”

不过，该证券行对租赁疲弱，以及空置率高企的吉隆坡办公市场发展感到忧虑，因吉隆坡市中心和週边地区在2016年杪前將新增21%或逾1千400万平方呎新办公空间，远超年均300万平方呎的平均出租率，市场面对更严峻的供过於求挑战。

在过去3年，新增供应已抑制吉隆坡办公空间出租率，其中市中心和週边地区出租率分別下挫12.4%和5.9%至81.6%和81.1%，因此相信部份政府再发展计划应延迟，以免加剧供过於求情况。

此外，黄氏唯高达也对多功能商务单位（SOFO）等混合型產业和依斯干达特区高档公寓潜在供过於求风险感到担心，因相关產业在过去2年大举面市，但实际自住需求並不踊跃。

马星实达
政策风险偏高

黄氏唯高达认为，受到政策风险、產业销售和价格增速趋疲等影响，產业市场前景將持续起伏不定，因此现金流吃紧、眾多在建工程、高土地成本，以及高度曝露在投机市场的產业发展商，如马星集团（MAHSING,8583,主板產业组）、实达集团（SPSETIA,8664,主板產业组）等將是最易受伤的一群。

New completions in Greater KL

While the majority of new launches are in the suburban areas, there are also a number of upcoming new developments in the KLCC vicinity, including projects such as KL Trillion Serviced Apartments and Verve Suites @ KLCC among others.

The Mont’Kiara vicinity is also seeing an increase in new launches, with projects such as Pavilion Hilltop, Residensi 22 @ Mont’Kiara, Sun Kiara Condominium, Kiara 163 Serviced Residence, Weida Mont’Kiara and others to be launched in the near future.

During the review period, there were two new completions in Mont’Kiara – Kiaramas Danai (287 units) and 28 Mont’Kiara (460 units).

Knight Frank says the office market is expected to remain challenging as supply continues to outstrip demand.

In KL city, demand for good grade dual-compliant office space is expected to remain resilient in the short term. Owners of old and dated office buildings are proactively seeking to upgrade and enhance their assets in a bid to remain competitive and retain tenants (and to attract new ones) amid a challenging leasing market.

The decentralised office location of KL Sentral, however, is expected to face further pressure on its occupancy and rental rates due to the recent completion of some 1.9 million sq ft and impending completion of some 1.7 million sq ft by year-end.

The short-term threat from these completions may, however, be mitigated as several buildings have secured anchor tenants.

Knight Frank says the impending opening of Nu Sentral later this year is expected to improve integration between the various completed components within KL Sentral and add further appeal to the transportation hub as a popular alternative office location, thus leading to improved demand and absorption rates in the medium to longer term.

With rapid developments of public transportation links (LRT extension and MRT lines), accessibility and connectivity between KL City and its fringe locations will be greatly enhanced. Coupled with the availability of good grade office space at competitive rental rates, this will accelerate the decentralisation process.

CBRE says some 6.27 million sq ft of new office space will be completed in the Greater KL region next year, although a considerable amount of this supply is located in strata-title or secondary buildings. Nevertheless, the market is set to remain poised in favour of tenants for the near future.

The KL city that constitutes the capital city’s golden triangle and central business district’s office market showed encouraging signs of life during the review quarter as vacancy rates fell to 12.7% (13.2% as at 1Q), on the back of some notable leasing activities.

Continued evidence of the ongoing flight to quality came in the form of an oil and gas major leasing over 200,000 sq ft of office space in Integra Tower, the recently completed prime office building within MGPA’s Intermark integrated development.

Overall, there was no change in average gross asking and passing rents for selected Grade A office space in the city, at RM8.10 psf and RM7.10 psf respectively.

As at the second quarter this year, the total supply of office space in Greater KL stood at about 91.1 million sq ft, 5% higher than the 89.2 million sq ft and up 5% year-on-year.

The second quarter of 2013 witnessed the completion of four developments, all located outside Kuala Lumpur city – Menara D’Damansara (253,000 sq ft of net lettable area), Plaza33 (530,840 sq ft), and Menara CIMB (609,000 sq ft) as well as Menara Shell (538,617 sq ft) located in KL Sentral.

Greater KL residential market expected to consolidate

THE Greater Kuala Lumpur residential property market is poised for some consolidation after recording breathtaking growth in terms of price hikes and transaction volume over the last three years, property consultants observe.

CBRE’s latest Greater Kuala Lumpur MarketView says a period of stabilisation is in order, with the period of significant growth in capital values seen since 2009 being replaced by an era of more gradual increases.

“The rapid growth in Kuala Lumpur and its suburbs has resulted in a scarcity in development land that drove up capital values for many areas in Selangor.

“About 75.7% of all residential units in Greater KL are located in Selangor, with the remaining 24% and 0.3% in Kuala Lumpur and Putrajaya respectively. Putrajaya, the country’s administrative capital, accounted for just over 4,740 units which are primarily for housing of civil servants,” the report adds.

New residential developments are being located further and further away from the city centre, with an increasing level of development seen in the southern portion of Greater KL, forming a growth corridor linking the city with Putrajaya/Cyberjaya and down to KLIA.

The CBRE report points out that previously overlooked areas, including Semenyih, are poised to see a marked increase in development activities in the near future.

As of quarter two (2Q) 2013, 196,092 units were classified as incoming supply, defined as units for which construction permits have been approved (whether or not construction has begun). Of this, 186,581 units were deemed to be under construction, implying that construction work has begun on 95.1% of the units with construction permits.

Total existing supply of residential properties stood at about 1.77 million units as at end-2Q 2013, with landed units accounting for 43.5% of total stock, non-landed properties made up 34.9% and low-cost housing was at 21.6%.

It notes that supply growth since end-2012 has been minimal at less than 1%, part of a wider slowdown in supply increase since 2006 that contributed to a rise in capital values in many areas of Greater KL since 2009.

Although the number of new starts has rebounded since 2011, it remained below levels seen during 2003 to 2007.

DTZ Nawawi Tie Leung executive director Brian Koh says that going forward, a slower but more sustainable growth in terms of new launches and take-up rate can be expected.

Koh says that in the last quarter of 2013, the things to look out for in the property market include a potential hike in bank interest rates as Bank Negara is expected to introduce further measures to rein in household debts. Higher borrowing rates may also affect mortgage loan rates that may mean higher borrowing cost to housebuyers.

“Buying interest from foreign buyers, especially from Singapore, Hong Kong, China and Japan could cushion the softer domestic demand going forward,” Koh observes.

Meanwhile, Knight Frank’s First Half 2013 Real Estate Highlights says while prices have flattened over the past 12 months as a result of government cooling measures, more activities are expected post-election as additional cooling measures implemented in competing Asian markets such as Singapore, Hong Kong and China, may lead to greater interest in the Kuala Lumpur, Penang and Iskandar Malaysia property markets.

“Malaysia is an attractive alternative investment destination due to its stable property market and relative housing affordability that offers reasonable returns in terms of capital appreciation/rental income.

“New launches featuring a good mix of unit sizing, particularly those located near high-level infrastructure projects, are expected to attract strong take-up as they appeal to a wider market of buyers and investors,” the Knight Frank report says.

In the luxurious condominium sector, CBRE estimates 6,484 units to be completed in Kuala Lumpur during the second half of 2013.

Of the 42,979 units of high-rise development (condominiums and serviced residences) in Kuala Lumpur valued at or above RM500 per sq ft (psf), it says about 35% are considered to be “luxury” (valued at RM800 psf and above).

Knight Frank says that with prices of high-end condominiums expected to remain flat for the remainder of this year, investors and purchasers will have the choice of opting for more bargain condominiums in the city and its immediate neighbourhood of Ampang Hilir/ U-Thant as the price per sq ft narrows between city and suburban living.