Budget 2014: Will prices drop?

In terms of value, however, the value of total home sales stayed pretty constant throughout Malaysia and Selangor in the first half of this year, compared to 1H2012, although they did drop about 26% in KL.

In terms of average home prices transacted, in fact, that still increased in this year’s first half by a national average of 16% compared to 1H2012, or 19% in Selangor and a whopping 41% in KL.

Indeed, according to Napic’s house price index, house prices increased every year since 1988. Outside of 1998 and 1999, in the wake of the Asian Financial Crisis, the index has increased even in years when the total values of property transactions dropped, such as 2001, 2005, albeit marginally.

Some industry watchers also believe that there will be a surge in demand next year, before the goods and services tax (GST) is implemented in 2015.

“We do not think property prices will correct but rather stabilise allowing a greater pool of buyers to come on stream,” suggested Kenanga Research in its post-Budget analysis.

Nevertheless, property prices in some areas have increased to unsustainable levels, believes Khong & Jaafar managing director, Elvin Fernandez. “For selected hotspots in Kuala Lumpur, property prices are not four times the average household income but 15 times!

“Even for highly popular areas like Bangsar, there has to be a limit. If Bangsar is RM1.5mil, people want to live there, but are you saying that if the price is RM3mil or RM10mil, will people still want to live in Bangsar? At some point, it’s got to stop.”

Will Budget 2014 help fill out vacant properties?

The recent budget dropped a double whammy for property buyers: An increase in real property gains tax (RPGT), ranging from 30% to 15% within five years, and the prohibition of Developer Interest Bearing Schemes (DIBS) where developers pay for interest on buyers’ loans during construction.

What will be the impact on the property market? According to property consultants CH Williams Talhar & Wong, an increase in RPGT would cause property transactions to drop, as they did this year when RPGT was increased in Budget 2013.

Indeed, outside of stampedes on projects like Sime Darby’s Bandar Bukit Raja, YTL Land’s Fennel, SP Setia’s Seri Mutiara apartments in Setia Alam and Setia Eco Hill in Semenyih as well as Eco World’s debut previews, the market of the last two years has cooled compared to the double-digit bull runs of 2010 and 2011.

While total property transactions dropped about 1% last year after having climbed more than 10% in 2010 and 2011, the number of home sales in the first half of this year dropped about 13% compared to the first half of last year.

This was from around 136,000 units to about 119,000 units, according to the Ministry of Finance’s National Property Information Centre (Napic). Number of home sales dropped by about 16% in Selangor, and by almost half in Kuala Lumpur!

“Since early 2012, when Bank Negara imposed the property responsible lending guidelines, we have seen the market slow down,” says MIEA president Siva Shanker. “Before that, it was a bit of a free-for-all. Anyone could get all sorts of loans, especially in the primary market.”

打房政策的利与弊

刚公佈的2014年度新財政预算案，四大打房措施是备受关注的焦点之一。

首相兼財长纳吉表示，这一系列的打房措施，是为了实现居者有其屋的目標及遏制炒楼活动，因为近年来的投机活动已造成房业价格持续走高，影响了人民的购屋能力。

打房措施將从2014年1月1日起生效，可以预见的是，城市地区如吉隆坡、新山和檳城的房屋市场將会因此放缓。站在老百姓的立场，这无疑是值得欢迎的；但对发展商和房屋仲介人而言，这却是个坏消息。

值得各方密切观察的是，在打房措施的阴影的笼罩下，未来半年的房產市场走势会怎样？房价飆升的现象会戛然而止，甚至急速往下调整吗？

一般的看法是，在短期內，不管是国內还是国外的投资者，都会採取更加谨慎的观望態度，以致一些特定地区如新山目前过热的的炒风暂时受到抑制。但发展商不会坐以待毙，他们將会在未来6个月的“冷静期”过后，根据新的形势，调整他们未来的房屋发展计划。

政府將拨出10亿令吉兴建8万个单位比市场价格便宜20%的“一马房屋”，以及与私人发展商联手打造22万3千间可负担房屋，可说是老百姓另一喜闻乐见的好消息。但所谓“一分钱一分货”，对整个房產市场来说，这些计划对抑制房价不一定有用。因为长远而言，真正影响房屋市场走势的还是需求的问题。如果发展商因为打房措施而放缓建屋计划，造成市场上的房產供不应求，则房產价格即使不再飆升，也不可能下降。

这一轮的打房政策，很大程度上是通过提高產业盈利税和提高外国人购屋价格的底限来达致，成也败也，还有待考验。有论者就认为，提高盈利税之举其实是一把“双刃刀”，未必有助於降低房价，反而会造成某些热点地区房价被进一步被推高。

无论如何，適当的降温措施是利多於弊的。但一些发展商的意见也值得政府深思，例如政府应该检討人民购买不起房屋的原因，而不是单向採取消极打房措施，给人朝令夕改的印象，不仅对房屋產业带来负面的影响，也打击了外资进军我国市场的信心。

星洲日报